> Реально, ситуация с Брекзит совершенно проигрышная для UK, играя по правилам EU, приняв Article 50, они потеряли любой leverage. Элита многое теряет в случае Брекзита, и то что они без паники наблюдают за ситуацией говорит о многом.
Ну так она всегда для нас изначально была проигрышна -здесь не Брекзит я имею ввиду, а ситуацию с EU set up in general , поэтому 20 лет ждали чтобы вступить, никогда не были там полностью, в Евровалюту не вошли - это невозможно, из ЕС сейчас выходим как монетарный донор этому образованию. Смотрят спокойно Бриты, т к статус кво хуже чем выйти сейчас. Поэтому все и спокойны - it is perceived by most that we are doing the right thing.
15:50 01.05.2017
иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на :
> играя по правилам EU, приняв Article 50, они потеряли любой leverage.
Другого пути нет. UK is a law abiding country and will follow the orderly process of leaving the EU, which starts with triggering the Article 50, which happened in March and was almost unanimously endorsed by the British Parliament.
16:25 01.05.2017
Redhead (Expat) писал(а) в ответ на :
> > иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на сообщение:
>> Реально, ситуация с Брекзит совершенно проигрышная для UK, играя по правилам EU, приняв Article 50, они потеряли любой leverage. Элита многое теряет в случае Брекзита, и то что они без паники наблюдают за ситуацией говорит о многом.
> > Ну так она всегда для нас изначально была проигрышна -здесь не Брекзит я имею ввиду, а ситуацию с EU set up in general , поэтому 20 лет ждали чтобы вступить, никогда не были там полностью, в Евровалюту не вошли - это невозможно, из ЕС сейчас выходим как монетарный донор этому образованию. Смотрят спокойно Бриты, т к статус кво хуже чем выйти сейчас. Поэтому все и спокойны - it is perceived by most that we are doing the right thing.
Мне кажется что элита не верит в успех Брекзита, так же как элита в США не верит что Трамп может что-то изменить. Слабые политики - значит отсутствие больших изменений и в случае с США и UK - хорошо для экономики (биржа не паникует).
Ты можешь привести Hard Data, что быть в EU было плохо для UK?
16:31 01.05.2017
иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на :
> Мне кажется что элита не верит в успех Брекзита,
Элита здесь pushed Brexit for years upon years as hard as they could, they want it . Ты знаешь кто такой Zac Goldsmith for instance или Bill Cash или сам Кэмерон? They are the elite.
16:37 01.05.2017
иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на :
> Ты можешь привести Hard Data, что быть в EU было плохо для UK?
Такой даты нет obviously , т к we have been in the EU since the 70s, there is no data available as to what would have happened if we weren't. But to be honest - we've never really truly been in the EU as a full member state . That is part of what accounts for the success of the UK economy. UK is a global trading financial centre and a global trading country, not an EU province like Bavaria.
18:26 01.05.2017
Redhead (Expat) писал(а) в ответ на :
> > иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на сообщение:
>> Ты можешь привести Hard Data, что быть в EU было плохо для UK?
>Такой даты нет obviously , т к we have been in the EU since the 70s, there is no data available as to what would have happened if we weren't. But to be honest - we've never really truly been in the EU as a full member state . That is part of what accounts for the success of the UK economy. UK is a global trading financial centre and a global trading country, not an EU province like Bavaria.
I hope you realize that this is a total bs! They are about to break trading, financial and human connections with mainland Europe, and there is no hard data to estimate what happens? And you want to convince me that British elite eager to jump into unknown without any visibility on what to expect?
By the way, May and Cameron were originally against brexit.
18:36 01.05.2017
иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на :
> hope you realize that this is a total bs!
I don't, as it happens. And have no idea as to what you are referring to in this stupid little emotional outburst of yours.
иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на :
> They are about to break trading, financial and human connections with mainland Europe,
Really? Who told you that? All the trade will carry on, just there'll be a little re-balance in conditions.
иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на :
> And you want to convince me that British elite eager to jump into unknown without any visibility on what to expect?
No one is jumping here - like yourself for instance . Noone is panicking, The Elite here wanted Brexit and pushed it forward . Watch the film that Zac's Dad commissioned here 20 years ago. If the Elite didn't want the Brexit, it wouldn't have happened here. This is a very old country, it is not like the United States. For something to happen here - both the Elites and the populous have to agree and on Brexit - they do.
18:41 01.05.2017
иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на :
> By the way, May and Cameron were originally against brexit.
Because they believed in the Reform of the EU, which Cameron dedicated his life to. But he wasn't listened to, and it wasn't achievable in the timeframe for the referendum, so the Tories changed their mind as to staying in the EU and keeping to pump the money into the project.
19:14 01.05.2017
Redhead (Expat) писал(а) в ответ на :
> > иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на сообщение:
>> By the way, May and Cameron were originally against brexit.
> > Because they believed in the Reform of the EU, which Cameron dedicated his life to. But he wasn't listened to, and it wasn't achievable in the timeframe for the referendum, so the Tories changed their mind as to staying in the EU and keeping to pump the money into the project.
Look, we are not finding a common ground. From EU point of view, you will need a visa to go to France (after hard brexit), there is a big question mark regarding financial services - but you say - not much changes will occur . In your view - only the best hope/result is possible?
19:27 01.05.2017
иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на :
> Look, we are not finding a common ground.
And it't highly unlikely we will, as you don't understand the processes and the undercurrents of what's going on as you don't live here. And I lived here for the best part of my life, certain things I just can't explain to you.
иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на :
> From EU point of view, you will need a visa to go to France (after hard brexit)
Probably. But at the moment if you are coming into the EU from outside with a Schenghen visa , then you still have to get a separate Visa to get into the UK. The EU Citizens are still subject to stringent passport controls on the EU -UK border, so I don't see any major changes apart from that it will be even more strict in terms of entering our country.
иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на :
> n your view - only the best hope/result is possible?
The Best result will be the SLOW unraveling of the current EU set up - I mean - the EU Commission, Eu Council, Eu parliament (in its current form), etc. The attempts to forcefully keep the Eurozone together will fail miserably. But again - it is a question of time. The main thing for the EU now - is no sudden movements or jumps off of a cliff edge. But - ultimately - it is a fundamentally flawed set up.
> > And it't highly unlikely we will, as you don't understand the processes and the undercurrents of what's going on as you don't live here. And I lived here for the best part of my life, certain things I just can't explain to you. > > иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на сообщение:
>> From EU point of view, you will need a visa to go to France (after hard brexit)
> > Probably. But at the moment if you are coming into the EU from outside with a Schenghen visa , then you still have to get a separate Visa to get into the UK. The EU Citizens are still subject to stringent passport controls on the EU -UK border, so I don't see any major changes apart from that it will be even more strict in terms of entering our country. >
> иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на сообщение:
>> n your view - only the best hope/result is possible?
> > > But - ultimately - it is a fundamentally flawed set up.
I heard it from Trump, but not from any serious people. EU gets a lot of criticism, and it will have to change in order to survive. But nobody calling for it to disappear.
And for negotiations, EU will try to make an example from UK, and I don't see any allies who could stand up for UK.
20:03 01.05.2017
иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на :
> heard it from Trump, but not from any serious people. EU gets a lot of criticism, and it will have to change in order to survive.
You obviously don't really grasp the concept of what the actual EU currently is. That's understandable , although -comes across as a bit ignorant, but never mind.
иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на :
> But nobody calling for it to disappear.
There is NOTHING to be called for to disappear. The EU member states have been around for centuries and will continue. It's s the current collective set up that is not to people's liking. That's all. Nothing much to worry about. As long as there is any room for reform. The hard line Tories here perceive the EU as utterly unreformable as it's the wrong set up in the first place - it's undemocratic.
The EU does not equal Europe. The current "EU "is just a bunch of unelectable civil servants, that's all. Europe is something different altogether. Obviously, judging by what you're writing on this forum for you Europe = Donald Tusk. Well, that's hardly seems the case from where I am standing.
иг911 (ig911) писал(а) в ответ на :
> And for negotiations, EU will try to make an example from UK,
They won't. It is the Putinist pathetic and revengeful rhetoric that you are regurgitating - as can't come to terms with the fact that - what you thought was good turned out to be not. It happens. The UK will come up trumps as a result of this, watch.
20:14 01.05.2017
⍟ иг911 (ig911),
You know, it is going to be a bit nasty between the UK and the EU for a while, it'a a given These are tough negotiations,but the UK is prepared to wallk away altogether - and trade with them under the WTO rules. It's an option we used before and will use again. We won't be bullied.
Jean-Claude Juncker calls Theresa May 'deluded' after disastrous Brexit talks
It's going to be a nasty "back and forth" but it's expected here.
> > ⍟ иг911 (ig911), > > You know, it is going to be a bit nasty between the UK and the EU for a while, it'a a given These are tough negotiations,but the UK is prepared to wallk away altogether - and trade with them under the WTO rules. It's an option we used before and will use again. We won't be bullied. > > Jean-Claude Juncker calls Theresa May 'deluded' after disastrous Brexit talks >
> > > It's going to be a nasty "back and forth" but it's expected here.
Remember, we talked before, that neither EU no UK have understanding and readiness to do actual divorce, and so far, it is just a political maneuvering without clear goals. Both sides have a hope, that they will be able to come to a start line, in case nothing useful comes from the divorce process.
21:55 01.05.2017
Redhead (Expat) писал(а) в ответ на :
> atch the film that Zac's Dad commissioned here 20 years ago.
By the way , Zac Goldsmith is married to Alice Rothschild now, he divorced from his previous marriage. Campaigned to be London Mayor from the Tory Party, but lost at the time.
He is one of those massively behind Brexit . But most of the British Elite.. well - let's say - are not happy with the current arrangement with the EU and are pro Brexit.
