>> Russian figure skating is absolutely gorgeous, people here love and watch it as well quoted2
>Yes. Kamila is a child, she will grow both in artistry and in technique, but her spins are already best in the world. And no one will challenge her in this area in the observable future. You can't be a mediocre spinner and then become a great spinner in 5 years. If you don't have a talent no matter how hard you work, you won't succeed. quoted1
Russian figure skating is very impressive. It is quite amazing actually.
We just came back from the countryside — the countryside is beautiful in Britain. Tomorrow is the big day here — there's gonna be the «meaningful» vote on May';s Brexit deal. Depending on how it goes — we might end up with the General Election, although I doubt it. Here is the latest
-Theresa May: My deal is 'not perfect' but history will see it differently -PM accuses MPs of trying to 'frustrate Brexit' -Jeremy Corbyn: It is time for a general election -Gareth Johnson MP resigns as Government whip with swipe at the deal --Boris Johnson: May's deal represents worst of both worlds David Campbell Bannerman: There's nothing to fear about a no deal Brexit, as top trade officials have told me Sign up for our Brexit Whatsapp updates and the all-new Brexit Bulletin
> Tomorrow is the big day here — there's gonna be the «meaningful» vote on May';s Brexit deal. Depending on how it goes — we might end up with the General Election, although I doubt it. Here is the latest quoted1
So, if they vote "NO", will no deal be inevitable?
After her deal is rejected — she will have 3 days to come up with Plan B and present it to Parliament. And then it will be out of the hands of Government, but in the hands of Parliament. Technically — no deal is possible, but the current Parliament is mostly the Remain Parliament you see, most MPs are Remainers there. So they might revoke the Article 50 or extend the negotiation period or do something else in order to avoid the No Deal scenario. May has been appealing to the Brexiteers in her Party to stop undermining her, but her Deal is so bad apparently, that even Remaining is better. Cause her deal takes out all the benefits of staying — the right to veto the EU projects (the veto rights were won for the UK by Margaret Thatcher), but we still will be tied up to the Customs Union, risk the break up of the UK (indefinite Northern Irish backstop) and have to pay a £39 billion divorce bill. For what exactly? The deal is just diabolical, no one wants it. So the circus is set to continue. There will be the last debates going on with the vote this evening. BBC, LBC, etc — are all doing an all day coverage of the events — it is as if we are having something huge like General Election or something.
Well, the result just came through. May's Deal was defeated by the record 230 votes (202 Ayes V 432 Nos), this is the biggest defeat for any Government in a 100 years. Last time this happened was in 1920s (and even then MacDonald was defeated on a much smaller scale) . This was brutal:
Huge demos of both Remainers and Leavers have been going on by the Parliament building all day today. This is really truly Democracy in action
Crazy comments are coming through on the Telegraph:
Really Haddock Nuff Now 15 Jan 2019 7:49PM To the tune of Hi ho.
No deal, no deal, no deal no deal no deal
Flag Tiger Chops 15 Jan 2019 7:49PM Bye, bye EU.
Bye, bye you protectionist Mafia racket.
Flag Julian Callendar 15 Jan 2019 7:49PM Paging Alan Winter …. message for Mr Winter….
Biggest government defeat in history, read all about it….
Flag tter wsttesrsieu 15 Jan 2019 7:49PM Good! No deal then.
Flag its not Cricket 15 Jan 2019 7:49PM I hope so but doubt it
Flag tter wsttesrsieu 15 Jan 2019 7:50PM @its not Cricket
Keep faith, it will happen.
Flag Oli Kendall 15 Jan 2019 7:49PM Tchuss Brexit!
Bren Roberts 15 Jan 2019 8:10PM The woman has no shame she should have stood up, said I accept the will of the house, I resign.
Flag Linda Mther 15 Jan 2019 8:11PM @Bren Roberts
Tories don't have a shame. They're all greedy, selfish sociopaths.
Flag Linda Mther 15 Jan 2019 8:10PM She must resign
Call a general election so Corbyn becomes our PM
Have a second referendum, this time not one based on lies.
Flag Elizabeth Smith 15 Jan 2019 8:10PM She should resign. When will the party see her for the liability she is?
Flag Gerard Saul 15 Jan 2019 8:09PM The fact that all sides of the House have ruled out a 'no deal' Brexit without even a mandate, effectively means we continue to have absolutely no bargaining chips. We're staying in one way or the other. Stitched up by the very ones elected to represent our wishes.
Flag philip harris 15 Jan 2019 8:09PM Let us just get out.. Forget this "Managed Deal" nonsense..it just leaves the way clear for more subversion..
david naviman 15 Jan 2019 8:09PM She has to go.
But then again she is wedded to power and lacks humility.
Interesting that roughly the same number of Tory MPs who supported her in the leadership no confidence vote backed her here.
I think the Tory party is finished and Corbyn will get in by default
Flag MARY LOUGHLIN 15 Jan 2019 8:08PM The only way to honour the referendum is to allow the No Deal scenario to occur at the end of March.
WTO is fine for the 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU.
I suspect, if we allow ourselves to drift in that direction the EU will frantically get something complied that is good for both sides.
No Deal will hurt them more than it will hurt us. Their economy is floundering with massive unemployment and Germany on the brink of recession. Our economy is strong. We can most certainly survive WTO.
I watched May just now on TV and she does not seem to have a plan B. That could be useful. Let the HoC play games for the next two months and if nothing is created which wins a majority vote then WTO here we come.
No Deal is the only honourable, ethical option. Its pure Brexit. I don`t want a Norway Option. I will not vote in a second referendum, just so that my vote can be trashed again.
If May wants to retire with dignity and honour, let us drift towards No Deal unfettered.
Flag Garth Rodgers 15 Jan 2019 8:07PM I think we need a new prime minister, at the very least...but there doesn’t appear to be anyone with the requisite equipment!
I wonder what happens next — Corbyn just tabled a vote of No Confidence in the Government, but watching the discussion right now on the BBC — everyone says the General Election is unlikely, it is more likely that May will be replaced by the Tories. She already announced she is going to Brussels to try and demand more concessions, but clearly — she won't succeed, it is more of the same old time wasting that she has been doing up to now.
Juncker: Time is almost up President of the European Commission tweets…
Social embed from twitter
Jean-Claude Juncker ✔ @JunckerEU I take note with regret of the outcome of the vote in the @HouseofCommons this evening. I urge the #UK to clarify its intentions as soon as possible. Time is almost up #Brexit http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-... …
1,672 19:52 — 15 Jan 2019 Twitter Ads information and privacy 2,123 people are talking about this
>indeed, it really took your officials so long to make the deal. As for me they had plenty of time but in the end everything is going to be settled in 2−3 months. quoted1
I got a few minutes to explain it to you what has actually been happening (I am not due at work till later today for Compliance training)
It is not «our officials» who made the Deal. The Deal was made by May and her advisors pretty much — «behind closed doors», she didn't listen to her own Party, half of whom are hard core Eurosceptics led by Jacob Rees Mogg and Johnson and they were the ones who won the public Referendum vote — by all accounts, the Leavers won. Cameron lost (the Conservative Remain wing), admitted his defeat and buggered off. As you know, following that — May took over. Like I said to you before — she was on the fence — neither Remainer, nor Leaver, but supported Cameron more and is seen more as a Remainer. It was a mistake to put a Remainer who had never believed in Brexit in charge of the Brexit process. What it led to — was the weakening of the UK negotiating position from the very start. She put the key Leavers in charge of the process to start off with — Johnson (Foreign Secretary), David Davis (the Brexit Secretary) and so on. She then made a speech at Lancaster House — that was a milestone kind of speech, setting out the UK intentions, which would be to leave the Customs Union, preserve the UK integrity and go for a free trade deal. Funnily enough, the EU was not against it and was at that point offering the UK «Canada +» deal. After starting deeper negotiations with the EU, she ditched her agenda re «Canada +» and started manoeuvring towards a «half in, half out» deal (at that point all the Brexiteers — Johnson, David Davis, etc. — resigned from her Cabinet as you remember), which she ended up presenting to the UK Parliament and which was so defiantly rejected yesterday as you can see, as it doesn't appease neither Leavers, nor Remainers. It is not «Brexit» for Leavers and it is not the «deep and special partnership with the EU» (this is what she said it would achieve) for Remainers, because the deep and special partnership with the EU is the full EU membership. The Remainers have been unable to accept the democratic will of the people since the Referendum and have been campaigning heavily for a second Referendum, hoping that the Brits, who are tired to death of all this uncertainty and palaver — are exhausted enough by the process by now to actually this time to vote to stay in. And then there is this Irish backstop issue. It effectively ties up Northern Ireland to different rules and regulations (the EU rules) from the rest of the UK — indefinitely. The Irish DUP (Unionists) who she governs in coalition with in Parliament (otherwise she doesn't have enough votes to push her agenda through) — rejected that unilaterally, as they want to stay part of the UK.
Here is the make up of the UK Parliament
Party Seats Conservative 317 Labour 256 Scottish National Party 35 Liberal Democrat 11 Democratic Unionist Party 10 Independent 8 Sinn Féin 7 Plaid Cymru 4 Green Party 1 Speaker 1 Total number of seats 650
You can discount Sinn Fein (this is the party of the Republic of Ireland, the IRA people so to speak) — they do not attend the UK Parliament out of protest and don't vote there on anything.
Labour mostly never votes for the Tory agenda, so they were expected to vote against the Government. That is 256 seats, then you have the SNP (Scottish Nationals) — Scotland voted «Remain» mostly — so they will also vote down any idea of Brexit. By the way, Labour is also split on Brexit, they have a lot of Remainers, but Corbyn and his people are Eursosceptics and don't want the Second Referendum. They are just as torn over the issue as the Tories. But they want to remain in the customs union, not the full EU membership. Labour members have been widely calling on Corbyn to make his position on the issue clearer, but he doesn't want to do it at the moment, his main goal is to bring down May's Government, so he doesn't want to alienate Eurosceptics and is against the Second Referendum, although a lot of his Party wants to put that (the Second Referendum) on their election Manifesto should we end up with the General Election as a result of all this chaos.
So — who let May down primarily yesterday — were 118 Eurosceptic Tories who voted against the Deal and 10 DUP. If you add 118 Tories +10 Dup + 196 Tories who did vote for the Deal yesterday — the Deal would have been accepted by a narrow majority. And May's Government Majority has always been very narrow in this Parliament, that is why she needs the coalition with DUP, whose support she lost over the Northern Ireland backstop issue.
There are two things that can happen now. The Government needs to make some tough decisions — either to move to a very soft Brexit (almost staying in) or to move to a Hard Brexit. If May goes for the first alternative, that will split her Party completely, people are saying the Party will literally break up into two and she won't have any support on anything after that. And if she goes for the second alternative — there will be very bad consequences for the economy — at least in the short term. Hard Brexit is very risky and the Parliament won't allow it either.
She will survive the No Confidence vote from Corbyn tonight — it is expected, as both her Eurosceptic wing and DUP will support her in that, They have no choice, as they want to rescue Brexit and not allow the Second Referendum and for the Remainers to win. This is by far more important for them at the moment — not to cause General Election and let Labour in.
What happens next — no one knows, as the EU apparently are not prepared to extend the Article 50 unless there is a material change in circumstances — i.e. — unless there is the Second Referendum on the agenda. At the same time — 29th of March is fast approaching and there is a huge risk of Hard Brexit happening by default.
The reaction of the markets was weirdly positive today however, the pound rose against the Euro and gained 1% against the Dollar, cause the markets are hoping the whole thing will now be delayed.
What is happening right now — is history in the making, it is gripping stuff. Deep down though I am quite sure the UK will come out of this well — I don't know why, I just am. Maybe it is wishful thinking.
At the moment both sides - Leavers and Remainers will try and capitalize on yesterday's result - the Remainers will be pushing more and more for the Second Referendum, claiming that the Parliament does not have either ability or indeed the mandate - to handle the issue, they have wasted 2 years and it should be put back to the public vote. The Leavers will be pushing for Hard Brexit . And it is much easier now as the time is running out. They don't want anything bad for the UK economy, they just believe more in the Hard Brexit strategy. They believe it is worth to take that risk and cause chaos and to show the EU that we really mean it, which will twist their hand into offering the UK much more favourable terms. To be honest - this is the strategy that should have been taken by May 2 years ago, and this is what the Eurosceptics have been pressing for all this time (she ignored them and they voted against her Deal) . Many argue, that had she listened to them then - we wouldn't have been in this position now. She weakened the UK's negotiating position by not taking a harder stance in the very beginning.
May is due to come back to Parliament on Monday with Plan B. If she continues to flog the dead horse (trying to push through her Deal which is clearly dead after yesterday), then it will be clear that the Government lost the plot completely. Then I would expect for the Tories to have Leadership contest and ditch this Government and form a new Government. Tories have been reluctant to do that so far - partially for the reason that no one wants this job at the moment. To try and organise Brexit is a poisoned chalice , as they say - the vote was close and you will end up pissing off either Leavers or Remainers - whatever you do. So they want May's Government to take as much flack as possible before organising something new and moving forward.
World championship will be held in March. Just can't wait for it. Alena made a stupid mistake in short program at Russian Nationals. She did all difficult stuff, but then she fell on her steps she relaxed a bit early after making all her jumping passes. I hope she will be perfect at worlds.
Btw, this is her previous free skate program. I didn't post it here before
> ⍟ Redhead (Expat), Oh, thanks for the detailed explanation. quoted1
This is probably sarcasm, it must be ultra boring for someone from Russia, as you don't have democracy in your Parliament (everyone votes the same way, as Mr Putin orders) and don't have a clue as to how complicated it is and how it actually works (or not ) in practice. I have a bit more time this week, as I am in training this week — re new FCA regulation — Compliance, Due Diligence, etc. It is ultra boring, but the plus side is — I only go to work (not the office, the training venue, which is in Bloomberg building, it is so funny to go to train in the place where I happened to work more than 10 years ago) — for 2 to 3 hours a day this week, wake up late, etc. Bliss. I am already missing my work however. Training here is very boring.
> ⍟ Redhead (Expat), > Oh, thanks for the detailed explanation. > > I was rewatching Alena's grand prix short program, and I decided to make a gif (it is very begining of the program, I like it very much). > It took me about 4 minutes to make it. Here it is. > > https://ibb.co/YLcS1yL >
> World championship will be held in March. Just can't wait for it. Alena made a stupid mistake in short program at Russian Nationals. She did all difficult stuff, but then she fell on her steps she relaxed a bit early after making all her jumping passes. I hope she will be perfect at worlds. > > Btw, this is her previous free skate program. I didn't post it here before quoted1
For me — Alena Kostornaya is the best, cause she just makes it look so effortless and gracious you know and she's just got the look, so I just like her the most. But they are all great. They will all do well in the world championship I am sure, I wish them all the best.
> For me — Alena Kostornaya is the best, cause she just makes it look so effortless and gracious you know and she's just got the look, so I just like her the most. But they are all great. They will all do well in the world championship I am sure, I wish them all the best. quoted1
Alena is fans fave hands down, she doesn't do something extraordinary difficult like Trusova or Shcherbakova, that's why she is usually 3rd like it was at Russian nationals. For now she can win only if they make a mistake of two. But she is planning to add 3A jump in her programs next year. Actually, I'm glad she isn't participating in that «arms race». These jumps are really risky, even dangerous. As for me, clean and mesmerising routine without ultra difficult elements is better than a flawed program with a quad jump or triple axel.
Unfortunately, Tarakanova left Eteri, she has regressed this season just like everybody else who left Eteri. I think it is because other coaches don't let their students train so hard. In Sambo-70 (Eteri school) girls train 3-4 hours a day on the ice and 2-3 hours in the gym 6 days a week. I said in the gym, but I don't mean they do some powerlifting there, they dance and work on their choreo. Also they have a ex ballerina from the Bolshoi theater. She works on their arms positions.