Jeremy Paxman interviews Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May
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23:25 30.05.2017
Election latest — update
Summary
-SNP launches manifesto with «anti-austerity» plan -Nicola Sturgeon calls for Indyref2 'at end of Brexit talks' -BBC Wales holding leaders' debate -Jeremy Corbyn has appeared on the One Show -He earlier stumbled over the cost of childcare plans -Theresa May says she is «ready to go» on Brexit -Tim Farron campaigning in London -SDLP launches manifesto -Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale on Ask the Leader
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09:22 31.05.2017
There's a lot of uncertainty now about the outcome of the election.
Sterling dips after poll suggests hung parliament
The value of the pound dropped after a projection suggested the Conservatives could fail to win an outright majority in the election on 8 June. Previous opinion polls suggested Prime Minister Theresa May's party would increase its majority, which is currently 17 seats. But the projection, published in the Times and based on YouGov research, suggests a possible hung parliament. Sterling fell by more than half of one per cent, but recovered some losses. Election 2017 poll tracker Latest currency figures By early Wednesday morning, it was trading 0.44% lower against the dollar at $ 1.28020 and 0.29% lower against the euro at 1.14600 euros. The Times said the YouGov data suggested that the Tories could lose up to 20 of the 330 seats they held in the last parliament, with Labour gaining nearly 30 seats. The Conservatives would still be the biggest party, but would not have an overall majority. The model is based on 50,000 interviews over a week, with voters from a panel brought together by YouGov. It uses a new «constituency-by-constituency» model for polling, which the paper says allows for big variations. According to the Times, «the estimates were met with scepticism by Tory and Labour figures.» YouGov's chief executive, Stephan Shakespeare said the model had been tested during the EU referendum campaign, when it consistently put the winning Leave side ahead. But he added: «It would take only a slight fall in Labour's share and a slight increase in the Conservatives' to result in Mrs May returning to No 10 with a healthy majority.»
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09:32 31.05.2017
The Telegraph seems optimistic about the Tories getting a healthy majority.
Analysis: Are Theresa May's chances of a historic Tory majority slipping away?
Comments
TERENCE COURTNADGE 30 May 2017 6:35PM May has been complacency itself. It's been beneath her to get out and fight like a tiger for the Tory Party; instead relying on UKIP voters deserting to her because Brexit is 'in the bag' oh and, because she's not Corbyn.
Flag craig Hudson 30 May 2017 6:30PM It might still be on
If you keep the hammer down
10 days, show us what you can do
Flag Super Wheats 30 May 2017 6:07PM I vote Labour. A couple of weeks ago I thought that we did not stand a chance and that JC was Michael Foot all over again. Well as Harold Wilson said, a week is a long time in politics, and we are eroding the PM's poll lead, making one wonder why on earth she even called this election in the first place. She must have been advised by one of her Tristrams that the polls showed her approval rating to be miles better than JC. He in turn seems to have had some media training and is coming across as less bonkers than before. Who'd have thought it?
If Mrs Mayhem wins with a smaller majority than she currently has will she be well regarded by her own? That would hardly be strong and stable government would it now?
Flag Suzi McCann 30 May 2017 6:23PM So if Labour wins we're going to have an anti-white racist as Home Secretary, an IRA sympathiser as PM and a maoist-marxist as Chancellor
Hey but you know 'free stuff'
Flag Super Wheats 30 May 2017 6:43PM @Suzi McCann Mrs Maybe should have been advised to be careful what she wished for.
We already have an imbecile for Foreign Secretary, an anonymous Home Secretary and a group of nonentities in the rest of the cabinet.
I think it was a tory PM who started peace talks with the IRA twenty five years ago. Denis Healy said you cannot really change he economy with governmental levers and it doesn't really matter what you do, and you have no evidence over your own prejudices about the other.
I still think Maybe might win but with a smaller majority than before. Will her supporters wonder why she bothered?
Flag John D Barnett 30 May 2017 8:31PM @Super Wheats @Suzi McCann Boris is no imbecile.
Flag Super Wheats 30 May 2017 9:02PM @John D Barnett I would have agreed with you until he cynically abandoned his remain principles, persuaded by Mr No Personality Gove (and/or his wife) to stand in the Leave camp with the promise of support for party leader when Cameron fell on his sword, only to be reeled in hook line and sinker, to lie about the £350 million daily gift to the NHS etc, then to have Gove slip the knife clean between the shoulder blades once the vote was won, saying he could not support Boris as he was unfit for office.
He looks like the twit that he is, a lifelong remainer, who as Mayor of London was espousing the virtues of immigrant workers keeping London going, and now is a Foreign Minister who is charged with smoothing over Brexit and trying to maintain relations with the individual member states of the EU. If he could not see that Gove was going to knife him, what chance does he have against the rest of the world?
I note you did not disagree with my analysis of the others.
Flag B Zabavnik 30 May 2017 5:44PM The only reason for mrs MAy to win is that nobody in their conscious mind would tolerate Dianne Abbott as Home secretary. Otherwise Mrs May has lost the game. Mrs May is not in the same league as Mrs Thatcher, it is like comparing a donkey to a racehorse. Personally I do not rate her higher than Cameron. If she gets a majority it will be a very slim one of about 5. We will not be getting a hung parliament because the remainers are going to get sifted out.
The electorate will keep her on avery much shorter leash than Cameron.
Flag James Edwards 30 May 2017 5:47PM @B Zabavnik
Oh come on, few PMs cannot compare to Mrs Thatcher, so why compare T. May to her?
The main focus is to demolish Labour, and get the Brexit talks going — that's all I care about.
Flag John D Barnett 30 May 2017 8:31PM @James Edwards @B Zabavnik Forget Brexit.
Flag TERENCE COURTNADGE 30 May 2017 6:38PM @B Zabavnik Foolish to try to predict it. Depends how many remnants vote Lib Dem hoping for a chance Brexit will be scuppered and where former UKIP voters go; May thinks she's going to capture them.
Flag David Walker 30 May 2017 5:39PM Lots of doom and gloom, I see.
The last time I can remember all this angst over Conservative fortunes in a General Election was June 11 1987 when the polls, pundits etc. had Kinnock pegged for a historic victory over Margaret Thatcher.
The polls closed, Kinnock and all his luvvies were all rubbing their hands in glee and had their (Socialist) champagne on ice ready for the celebration.
And then, as the counts came in, it dawned on them that it had all gone horribly wrong…
The Tories won by a landslide.
Corbyn hasn't a snowflake's chance in Hell of entering No. 10 on 09/06/17.
Flag James Edwards 30 May 2017 5:44PM @David Walker
I sincerely hope Communist Labour get well and truly stuffed.
Flag G Waltham 30 May 2017 7:39PM @James Edwards @David Walker 'I sincerely hope Communist Labour get well and truly stuffed.'
There are Labour supporters who call Tories 'fascists'. Just as much a drama queen, just as politically illiterate as Jimmy Edwards.
Flag TERENCE COURTNADGE 30 May 2017 6:40PM @David Walker Repeated 5 years later. Remember the Sheffield Rally, Sunday before the Election?
Flag Hugh Wright 30 May 2017 5:10PM Underneath May's hideous and terrifying exterior, there's a complete Alien struggling to get out ….
Flag TERENCE COURTNADGE 30 May 2017 6:40PM @Hugh Wright lol
Flag Chris Fantastic 30 May 2017 4:58PM She's a hideous, useless, lying hag, vote UKIP.
Flag Robert Carter 30 May 2017 5:45PM What and scupper any chance of Brexit happening. You really are a pillock!
Flag James Edwards 30 May 2017 5:48PM @Chris Fantastic
Tell me, at this late hour — why are you trying to destroy UKIP's EU referendum victory???
Flag TERENCE COURTNADGE 30 May 2017 4:29PM In a word: YES and one woman has to take most of the blame. And who might that woman be? Answers on a postcard.
Flag Bill Ainslie 30 May 2017 4:29PM I am begining to worry about this, there is a feel out there that she has blown this, if people needed bribing with their own money then bribe them, she has chosen not to maybe that will be proved correct but I think it is going to be a far closer affair than people think.
Flag Ed Moxon 30 May 2017 4:17PM This analysis does not seem to adjust expectations given the built in advantage Labour currently enjoy. I seem to remember in 2005 that a 35% share each (Labour/Tory) of the vote would translate to a 60 seat majority for Labour. So it is not straight forwards to determine what number of seats = tory landslide.
That said, May has run a dull campaign. Endlessly repeating the mantra «strong and stable» and dotting the word «clear» (followed by no usable detail) randomly in sentences, especially when u-turns undermine both the «stable» and «clear» messages, are not inspiring. Corbyn talks ruinous nonsense — but at least he is saying something and his messages are clearly taking root.
If Corbyn gets in (please God, no) — it will be as much down to an incompetent attempt by the Tories to fight this on May's personality (when she doesn't have one, copyright Blackadder) as Corbyn's «free stuff for everyone paid for by somebody else» manifesto.
Flag TERENCE COURTNADGE 30 May 2017 5:00PM @Ed Moxon A Labour victory, unlikely that it is would start a run on the pound for sure.
Flag Noel Smith 30 May 2017 5:39PM @TERENCE COURTNADGE @Ed Moxon Terence, a Labour victory would start a run to the «bogs».
Is it even conceivable that the people of this country, who showed such common sense last June, would fall for the momentum based destructive policies of Labour?
Flag Martin Jenner 30 May 2017 4:02PM A comfortable Tory majority is perfectly acceptable. Keeping Corbyn's lot away from any job requiring a grasp of mathematics is the main thing.
Flag Janet Warrior 30 May 2017 3:20PM Any sane person would have to vote Tory. Labour would beggar the country in record time.
Flag P Williams 30 May 2017 3:13PM Unfortunately she's the least bad choice, not a great recommendation.
Flag TERENCE COURTNADGE 30 May 2017 5:01PM @P Williams right on
Flag S GS 30 May 2017 2:37PM She has brought this upon herself by messing about with a) triple lock and b) social care this time round. This election was about giving her a much larger majority so that Labour and Lib Dems couldn't sabotage her at every step of the way with Brexit. Everything else could and should have waited until 2022. I thought she was politically savvy — now I'm not so sure.
Flag Gerard Edgar 30 May 2017 3:02PM @S GS
«I thought she was politically savvy — now I'm not so sure. "
I'm sure — absolutely sure — she isn't.
Unless, that is, she has set out to scupper Brexit at all costs.
I think she has a good number of pro Brexit Tory voters worried right now.
Flag David Cunningham 30 May 2017 5:50PM @S GS Persoanlly I blame her advisors (Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy) who are in my view completely useless when it comes to what is important to the majority of the British people. They might be good at running a government department (to be debated), but their advice for this election has been diabolical.
Flag gina bataille 30 May 2017 2:20PM David Dimbleby thinks that press is treating Corbyn unfairly ……like exposing his lie that he never met an IRA?
Flag Richard Baguley 30 May 2017 2:01PM Is the lead slipping away?
No, it has vanished.
Thanks to her awful manifesto, May threw the majority away and it's never coming back unless she stops acting like a dictator and pushes her team, especially BoJo, to the fore: she might then manage a working majority. On June 9 if there isn't a hung parliament Corbyn will be in No.10 and (with any luck) May will be on the dole.
Btw, I shall vote Tory: the least left of our five leftist parties and the only glimmer of hope for Brexit.
Flag Timothy Southall 30 May 2017 5:14PM @Richard Baguley Nah she'll be alright and will then be able to push through the electorally unpopular but (arguably) fiscally sound policies in the manifesto with a direct mandate and an increased majority.
Flag Christopher Gage 30 May 2017 1:42PM Over 80% of Ukip voters are going Tory. The local elections saw a 7% swing to the Conservatives, plus the big swing in Scotland. ICM puts the Tories 14 ahead. Tack more on that seeing as the blue vote is always understated and the campaign reboot has been a success.
Nearly half of the working-class vote is heading to the Tories, plus 75% of the reliable grey vote.
The reports of May's death have been exaggerated.
Flag Richard Baguley 30 May 2017 2:04PM @Christopher Gage
I wish you were correct but you're wrong, Christopher, completely wrong.
The polls show the majority falling like a stone.
Corbyn in No.10 now looking very, very possible.
Flag Gerard Edgar 30 May 2017 3:06PM @Richard Baguley @Christopher Gage
Your faith in the polls, Richard is truly inspiring.
Where on earth did you get it from?
Flag Christopher Gage 30 May 2017 4:01PM @Richard Baguley The 14-point ICM after the worst of campaign weeks. Watch that fly back up. Selective poll? Nah. The others base way too much on non-voters and Corbyn-friendly demographics.
Nothing like a stacked poll to wash away complacency.
Flag David Walker 30 May 2017 5:29PM @Richard Baguley @Christopher Gage «The polls show the majority falling like a stone.»
No they don't.
Stop making stuff up.
Flag gina bataille 30 May 2017 1:37PM My worry is how violently Corbyn supporters will react on the 9th of June.
Flag Richard Baguley 30 May 2017 2:05PM @gina bataille
Celebrating their win?
It's looking possible — and utterly frightening.
Flag Neil Davies 30 May 2017 1:34PM The Tory manifesto was a historic failure of the first order.
Flag Richard Baguley 30 May 2017 2:06PM @Neil Davies
Yup and it could lose them the election.
The irony is that May's, arguably socialist, policies make some sense just never in a manifesto.
Flag David Cunningham 30 May 2017 5:52PM @Neil Davies her advisors have a lot to answer for.
Flag Ben Da 30 May 2017 1:13PM I don't think so. Moderate Labour supporters are put off by Corbyn's stance it's only the far left ones who will end up voting for Labour. People will come to their senses come election day. If the UK was in recession I would have less hope of Tories winning. It's not a personality contest I don't particular like TM but I believe she doesn't feel comfortable making speeches like Corbyn whose been doing it throughout his whole career!
Flag Jonboy uk 30 May 2017 1:12PM Before the election everyone moaned about the spiralling, unaffordable cost of social care. Now someone has had the guts to suggest an answer, that — shock, horror — the people who receive care should pay for it, all hell breaks loose.
Flag Chris Morgan 30 May 2017 1:33PM @Jonboy uk No, the new Tory policy is that only those who have saved hard and paid a mortgage all their lives will have to pay.
Mrs May lost my vote. I'll either not vote at all now, or vote tactically against the Tories.
Flag Richard Baguley 30 May 2017 2:07PM @Chris Morgan @Jonboy uk
Sorry, that's wrong.
Residential property is ALREADY assessed for care in most local authorities: I speak from first hand experience.
Flag Chris Morgan 30 May 2017 2:15PM @Richard Baguley @Chris Morgan @Jonboy uk
For residential care yes. The Tories are now widening the scope to included home care, which will lengthen the costs by many years for many people, as residential care for many happens right at the end of their lives. And what else from then on when it becomes established policy that our homes are up for grabs as the new social care cash cow.
Rent and spend your income and you don't have to pay a penny extra, and will be needing housing benefit top-ups in retirement. Save and pay off a mortgage, and you will lose everything anyway.
This is the thin end of the wedge, and I know a lot of people who are very angry about the whole thing.
Flag Nigel Mills 30 May 2017 5:33PM @Chris Morgan @Richard Baguley @Jonboy uk So someone who lives in rented accommodation and has savings should pay for their care with only a very small cap but those who own houses worth £100's of thousands should never have to pay anything ever but the tax payer should pick up their bill? How is that fair? It isn't.
Flag Rob Jackson 30 May 2017 1:04PM I'll vote Tory as the best chance of securing a cleaner Brexit, plus to keep Corbyn/Abbott out and in support of a good constituency MP, but none of that is an endorsement of May, 0.7% ringfenced foreign aid, crippling defence cuts nor Islamic appeasement.
After the political amateurism — and at times arrogance — of the Conservatives' campaign to date, May limping home with little more than the majority she commands now might be no bad thing. Pro-Brexit backbenchers will have more clout in shaping the Government's negotiating position, and the 1922 Committee will put the succession wheels in motion.
If only UKIP had managed to build on their Referendum triumph under somebody like Steven Woolfe, to offer both the Right and Leaver Left a serious choice. Alas, I think their bolt is permanently shot. Why field candidates against locally popular, pro-Brexit Tories in Lincolnshire, for example, while elsewhere Northern Leaver working class constituencies are left uncontested?
Flag Richard Baguley 30 May 2017 2:09PM @Rob Jackson
Well said but I fear Corbyn may win.
Flag Rob Jackson 30 May 2017 2:26PM @Richard Baguley
That's what scares me. This will be an historic self-inflicted political wound if they do, a case study in how to alienate both traditional core support plus potential first-time voters coming across from the opposition. Win or lose, May has to go.
Flag Merlin Harris 30 May 2017 12:52PM Yes
Flag Emerson Maguire 30 May 2017 12:29PM No Comments allowed on the SNP manifesto story, but I assume it is just a one liner
«Its all the fault of those English Bstrds. B*00dy Tories. Vote SNP for the socialist utopia and free money for all.»
Flag Richard Baguley 30 May 2017 2:09PM @Emerson Maguire
Same goes for Labour.
Flag Gerard Edgar 30 May 2017 3:16PM @Richard Baguley @Emerson Maguire
It's expected of Labour.
They're known idiots.
Like Mrs May is now.
Flag Ayan Dol 30 May 2017 12:23PM The more I see of May the more and more I dislike her. The days of Cameron seem like a dream compared to this nightmare campaign.
Flag Emerson Maguire 30 May 2017 12:31PM @Ayan Dol
Agree. She is not an inspiration and I think there will be millions of confused voters trying to vote for 'Teresa May' on election day, only to find she isn't on the ballot. Nor is 'Teresa May's Team' an option. So who do I vote for? Just chose a name at random off the list? What could possibly go wrong?
Flag I MacLachlan 30 May 2017 2:12PM @Emerson Maguire @Ayan Dol Sadly, Mrs May is a very poor communicator. She has an off-putting style that many people will no like. As far as the campaign is concerned, I feel that it is one of the worst Tory campaigns I have ever witnessed and I have been voting Tory for 60 years. The message is totally confused, which is very surprising as she is supposed to be advised by Lynton Crosby the great polling guru.
This whole mess has been self-inflicted as there was no need to raise the concerns of many Tory pensioners with her threats of Winter Fuel allowance and social care caps. These both need addressing, but in a much more subtle way that the way it was done.
I am in doubt that if she does not win, she will face a leadership challenge and rightly so. Where I live, there is much anger in Tory circles about this very poor campaign, and she is rightly blamed for it.
To me, this is a Teresa May election campaign, not a Conservative election campaign. She either does not trust her colleagues or they are not considered good enough to sell the message.
Flag Alan Scott 30 May 2017 2:32PM Just remember her abysmal performance as Home Secretary. The only person who gives me any comfort about Brexit is David Davis, if for any reason he leaves the pole position we can expect the worst.
May started off this campaign as if it was a presidential election which was a ridiculous approach, she soon fell flat on her face due to an idiotic manifesto and her total lack of charisma and ability to communicate.
Flag Stephen Morris 30 May 2017 2:36PM @Alan Scott If David Davis had become leader instead of Cameron in 2005, we wouldn't be in this mess and the world would have been a much better place.
Flag Alan Scott 30 May 2017 4:27PM Totally agree.
Flag Brenda Slagg 30 May 2017 12:20PM The headline should be in the past tense. They have slipped away.
Flag D Butler 30 May 2017 12:13PM All parties are so used to being told what to do by Brussels, that it is not surprising they all avoid any questions on how their programmes are to be paid for. The fact that we are insolvent doesn't seem to register with our political elites.
If we ever become a self governing country it will be interesting to learn what the electorate will vote for, more borrow & Spend or balance the books.
Flag Captain Mainwaring 30 May 2017 12:27PM @D Butler
As usual, the great unwashed will vote for more handouts and the poor sods that have to pay for it will vote the other way.
Flag Trumpety Trump 30 May 2017 12:57PM @Captain Mainwaring @D Butler And Brown's big strategy was always to keep the former in the majority
Flag Tom Armstrong 30 May 2017 12:09PM While the thought of Corbyn, Abbott, Thornberry and the rest of the cretinously stupid Labour lot in power, especially relying on the ludicrous Libdems and the very nasty Scottish National Socialist Party, is too abhorrent to contemplate and will persuade enough, like me, to reluctantly vote Tory, May has made the cardinal sin of taking natural conservatives for granted.
The Tories have been doing this for years, and May's drive to the Left sickened many, especially as it seems to have failed to capture many ex-Labour voters.
Flag D Butler 30 May 2017 12:18PM Tom Armstrong.
It hasn't been a Conservative party for years, I resigned when
Call me Dave Cameron «modernised» the party out of existence.
It's Bluelabour these days.
Flag P White 30 May 2017 12:58PM @Tom Armstrong Charles Moore made a typically astute comment at the weekend. If May gets into a public spending bidding war with Labour she will lose. The way to win is to present aspirational, conservative free market values
Flag Rob Jackson 30 May 2017 1:12PM @Tom Armstrong
Very well put, my sentiments exactly.
Flag Brexit Brexit 30 May 2017 12:03PM Alienating your core vote with care costs and pension reductions coupled with a blue Labour manifesto that ex Labour voters won't vote for and all the old remoaner Tory MP's still as candidates for reelection — is not the way to get a landslide majority.
Flag Peter May 30 May 2017 11:52AM I am rich therefore I vote Tory. Easy
Flag Captain Mainwaring 30 May 2017 12:22PM @Peter May
So 45% of the population are rich are they? You could have fooled me.
Flag Brian Davies 30 May 2017 12:37PM @Captain Mainwaring @Peter May Captain, it is not you who is gullible but the adjective is certainly appropriate for Mr May.
Flag Ghenadi Vasiliev 30 May 2017 12:22PM @Peter May not quite that easy
Flag Gerard Edgar 30 May 2017 3:26PM @Peter May
«I am rich therefore I vote Tory ».
«All my credit cards are maxed out and I'm well over my head in debt "
Therefore I vote Labour.
Flag Brian Mathieson 30 May 2017 11:47AM Good morning to all telegraph readers the best paper on the market the polls are wrong they got it wrong on election night last time and will do again Theresa may wont have. To worry the conservatives are in for a landslide victory the Labour Party will do ok the ukip won't exist after the election and the snp are going to lose many seats in scotland that's what's going to happen
Flag Peter May 30 May 2017 11:55AM @Brian Mathieson Actually I am very rich and very smug like many Tory voters. Are you surprised?
Flag Terry Bonar 30 May 2017 1:54PM @Peter May. Are you Teresa's b@stard son? I'd have kicked you out as well.
Flag Captain Mainwaring 30 May 2017 12:26PM @Brian Mathieson
Please use more than 1 full stop. I would like to read your comment not decipher it.
Flag Gerard Edgar 30 May 2017 3:32PM @Captain Mainwaring @Brian Mathieson
I think he should use less than one. The one he did use was completely misplaced.
Probably went to Cambridge — with Diane Abbott.
Flag Thatcherite Eurosceptic 30 May 2017 12:41PM @Brian Mathieson I can see you benefited from a New Labour education.
Flag I MacLachlan 30 May 2017 2:14PM @Brian Mathieson I really do wish I could share your optimism.
Flag Gerard Edgar 30 May 2017 3:36PM @Brian Mathieson
Ignoring the grammar Brian, I'll only know whether you're a genius or (well not a genius) on the day after the election.
Right now I have my doubts.
Flag Crypto Peerless 30 May 2017 11:46AM I am certain that most pensioners, somewhat cross that they may have to contribute a bit more to their care if they are unlucky enough to get Dementia will demonstrate that they have not yet lost their minds and will not vote for JC on the day.
This is where the polls are hopeless predictors, registering as they do a snapshot of the latest press reporting. The «Dementia Tax» was certainly catchy, but the fact that Corbyn would effectively bankrupt the UK with his policies, and that would have a devastating consequence for pensions will surely mean that the oldies amongst us will see sense on election day.
Flag It's time for Brexit 30 May 2017 11:48AM Absolutely. What you have to remember is there are no alternatives to Theresa May, except bankruptcy and doom.
Flag Chris Fantastic 30 May 2017 5:31PM @It's time for Brexit UKIP still exist you know, read their manifesto. If you actually want Brexit to happen as it should, rather than May and friends wanting free movement, single market etc.
Flag Alistair Pugh 30 May 2017 11:42AM
Are Mrs. May's chances of securing an historic election victory slipping away? Certainly not! They slipped away some little time ago!
Flag Richard Cooper 30 May 2017 11:41AM «If the polls are to be believed». Note that polls are commercial operations. They are more relevant if the match is close, and their clients will order more polls, than if it is a one-horse race. They then have a commercial incentive to present the lead as «narrowing» and the forecast result as «close» than if it is really a one-horse race.
Flag It's time for Brexit 30 May 2017 11:37AM However bad Theresa May is, she's a lot better than the alternatives or Cameron/Osborne.
Flag Philip Smith 30 May 2017 11:30AM 50 is good enough
Flag EU Slayer 30 May 2017 11:43AM @Philip Smith
I'll take 1 the way things are going :-~
Flag Gerard Edgar 30 May 2017 3:43PM @Philip Smith
I don't think 50 is good enough Philip,
Not with Corbyn, Abbott, MacDonald and Thornberry as the opposition.
Mrs May should have done far better than 50.
Not that she deserved to.
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17:39 31.05.2017
⍟ Redhead (Expat),
It seems that the polling data we are seeing is showing a possible landslide win for May. With somewhere between 6−10% lead in the polls and assuming it's a broad based support, she should do quite well. Hopefully 55−57% of seats, maybe more if labour voters don't bother to vote.
In our last federal election PM Trudeau led mister Harper in the popular vote by only 7.5%, but won 85 more seats… a very big majority considering total number of seats is only 338.
19:27 31.05.2017
I believe if May wins with 5% or less — she will effectively loose, because «Demoralized :) «- Democratic coalition — will get a majority in Parliament.
Последние опросы показывают что May выигрывает только 3.5%.
Похоже, мы можем увидеть - один из величайших политических провалов - в истории Англии.
19:43 31.05.2017
Досрочные выборы в Парламент Англии — в Четверг 8-го Июня.
19:53 31.05.2017
Для тех кто не в курсе, премьер-министр Англии Theresa May, назначила досрочные выборы в Парламент чтобы воспользоваться популярностью Консерваторов (Tories) и получить абсолютное большинство в Парламенте. Теперь, она может потерять всё, включая её шансы вывести Англию из ЕС (Брексит).
20:01 31.05.2017
Либеральные СМИ, почуяли запах крови и включились на полные обороты. Песня про Терезу — «She's a liar, liar «- заняла 2-е место по популярности / загрузке на Интернете.
Примерно так же, в своё время, либералы растерзали Маргарет Течер.
20:37 31.05.2017
В Белом Доме молчат, но мне кажется что начало падения May (в Британском общественном мнении), началось, когда она с первого взгляда, подружилась с Толстой Задницей. А Меркель — показала, как правильно иметь дело с Трампом (по-резче с ним)..
> ⍟ Redhead (Expat), > > It seems that the polling data we are seeing is showing a possible landslide win for May. With somewhere between 6−10% lead in the polls and assuming it's a broad based support, she should do quite well. Hopefully 55−57% of seats, maybe more if labour voters don't bother to vote. >
> In our last federal election PM Trudeau led mister Harper in the popular vote by only 7.5%, but won 85 more seats… a very big majority considering total number of seats is only 338. > >
> ⍟ Redhead (Expat), It seems that the polling data we are seeing is showing a possible landslide win for May. With somewhere between 6−10% lead in the polls and assuming it's a broad based support, she should do quite well. Hopefully 55−57% of seats, maybe more if labour voters don't bother to vote. In our last federal election PM Trudeau led mister Harper in the popular vote by only 7.5%, but won 85 more seats… a very big majority considering total number of seats is only 338.
> > >
Yeah, I still believe that the Tories will win with a comfortable majority. However, May's campaign has been bad from the start — unfortunately, she lacks Cameron's brains and Boris's charisma. Everyone understands that there is austerity going on but her choice of policies is quite ill thought out. The most memorable to the electorate now is «dementia tax» and abandoning free lunch school policy for low income families at schools. Both are nasty polices - so much so that even the senior Tories revolted against them. There is a food festival going on in London at the moment and the top chefs are now campaigning against taking the free school lunch away from poor kids. It all looks bad and unpopular. She would have been better off promoting her living wage policy and being a bit more positive — including about Brexit. (She keeps saying no deal is better than a bad deal, but everyone knows that we'll need a proper deal — not Norway model, or Switzerland model and not under WTO rules — it's gotta be a proper UK model. ) She also refused to turn up for the TV Debate with Jeremy Corbyn tonight. That is seen as a weakness. As well as her constant U Turns (contrary to Thatcher with her «The Lady is not for turning».) Maybe it is wishful thinking, but I still think she will win with a comfortable majority. I just know one thing — Corbyn is not an option for this country.
> Либеральные СМИ, почуяли запах крови и включились на полные обороты. Песня про Терезу — «She's a liar, liar «- заняла 2-е место по популярности / загрузке на Интернете. Примерно так же, в своё время, либералы растерзали Маргарет Течер.
> I believe if May wins with 5% or less — she will effectively loose, because «Demoralized :) «- Democratic coalition — will get a majority in Parliament. Последние опросы показывают что May выигрывает только 3.5%.Похоже, мы можем увидеть — один из величайших политических провалов — в истории Англии.
> > >
I wouldn't rely too much on the polls, in 2015 all the polls unanimously predicted landslide Labour victory (and Labour made lots of promises then too), but it was a Conservative landslide instead. Polling here is very inaccurate these days.
21:41 31.05.2017
иг911 (ig911) писал (а) в ответ на :
> believe if May wins with 5% or less — she will effectively loose, because «Demoralized :) «- Democratic coalition — will get a majority in Parliament. Последние опросы показывают что May выигрывает только 3.5%.
There is no such thing here as Democratic coalition. There is Labour, SNP and Libdems (they only have 8 seats currently and are very weak), Labour and SNP would never go into the coalition together (they are main rivals in Scottish Parliament elections). If Corbyn wins it will be chaos. I mean — there are some decent Labour MPs — like Andy Burnham for instance, but they don't get on with Corbyn.
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> Примерно так же, в своё время, либералы растерзали Маргарет Течер. >
> > >
Какие либералы? о чем ты? Тэтчер растерзали свои же — Tory front benches knifed her in the back over Europe (in short.) Remember — no one can bring down a Tory like another Tory.
22:36 31.05.2017
Redhead (Expat) писал (а) в ответ на :
> > иг911 (ig911) писал (а) в ответ на сообщение:
>> believe if May wins with 5% or less — she will effectively loose, because «Demoralized :) «- Democratic coalition — will get a majority in Parliament. Последние опросы показывают что May выигрывает только 3.5%.
> > There is no such thing here as Democratic coalition. There is Labour, SNP and Libdems (they only have 8 seats currently and are very weak), Labour and SNP would never go into the coalition together (they are main rivals in Scottish Parliament elections). If Corbyn wins it will be chaos. I mean — there are some decent Labour MPs — like Andy Burnham for instance, but they don't get on with Corbyn.
I watched today's debate, Corbyn looks reasonable. I did not get an impression that his «Red» views will interfere with actual governance. But his victory will spell the end of BRexit — in the form Cameron did not want it to be (aggressive and destructive).
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Какие либералы? о чем ты? Тэтчер растерзали свои же — Tory front benches knifed her in the back over Europe (in short.) Remember — no one can bring down a Tory like another Tory. 
